Why Libya will not change much

Watching what is going on in Libya and the semi-public tensions among the “ coalition”, I cannot but think that the conflict will be short lived and that, most probably, Khadafy will survive yet again to fight another day.

How can I say this? Well I can think of a few reasons:
• Colonel Ghadaffi has never had expansionist or “imperialist” designs in his politics. Contrary to others, Sadam Hussein for example, he is not and has never been a threat to his neighbors or the nearby nations. At the end of the day, it is much better to control him than to have him set loose on his own people and neighbors.
• The Libyan military have not hesitated to align themselves, with very few exceptions, with the Colonel. Contrary to what the Egyptian and Tunisian Armies did a few weeks ago. For them it seems a matter of survival.
• Historically, intervention in what amounts to little more than a tribal dispute, is something to be very prudent about. Examples like Afghanistan and Iraq are there to prove my point.
• At the end of the day, the interest of the coalition countries lies in assurance of supply of oil. Is there any reason to believe that such assurance is better off with a new regime? Khadafy himself has always assured such a supply for years, even when his country was subject to sanctions.
• Cost: a no-fly zone is anything but cheap, and coalition countries are going through severe budgetary restrictions. And those who, further east, have the financial means, have all sorts of ties with the current regime that precludes more active involvement in the Colonel’s removal from power.