Security issues in North Africa

It has been some time since I have been able to sit down and reflect about the current situation in North Africa and the Middle East. I have being dealing with an undiminished conflict of interests between the " West" and the Non Aligned Movement, along old lines and with some of the Emerging Powers still unsure on which side of the fence they really want to be. This is particularly true in the AIEA in the case of South Africa and Brasil.

But recently a friend, Dr. Chris Sarver, has asked me for my take on the issue. And I have spent my first day of the weekend break thinking what I could tell him, a professor of International Relations, that he didn't already know. So I decided that I would limit my sketchy thoughts to what I think the security implications of the current tensions and violence can mean for  Europe broadly and for Spain in particular. I would caution my readers that I am focusing exclusively on security issues. That is what I do for living. There is as little " ideology" as possible in the next few paragraphs as possible. 

The first major issue concerning security is oil and gas. Not only have they being going up in price, as supplies have been threatened, but this threat is not likely to change in the near future, and transport through the Suez Canal, along the coast of North Africa and the physical security of the gas pipelines coming to Spain could be targeted in the next few weeks. All this further implies an increase in European energy dependency from Russia. And Russia itself might, just might, be more interested in maintaining a level of chaos and tension in the Mediterranean to encourage this increased dependency. 

Spain's dependency of oil and gas from the affected region is close to 50%. So it is clear that for us it is an issue of vital national interest. But we, together with the rest of the European Union, have seriously impaired our capacity to react. The European Union has decided to support the regime changes and transitions in North Africa and the Middle East. This support can, thus, only be in development and financial aid. This also means that we are excluding any other form of intervention, military or otherwise, if events turn in a direction that we consider to be against our own interests and stability. And this in an area of direct strategic interests for us who would have to cope with the associated problems. Just one example: a substantial increase in migratory pressures. If events go in the wrong direction we could face a massive influx of refugees from North Africa in the short term. In the medium and long term, we could face a massive exodus of people should improvements in living conditions, both economic and political, not meet the current expectations of the peoples of the area. 

But let us descend into deeper levels of security implications for us Europeans, neighbors to the current events. For countries involved in a violent process of change, notably Libya, what could happen if Human Rights violations become a fact? Please notice that I personally believe that these violations exist. But my personal belief and what we see and hear in the media, don't make them an " international fact" that the International Community is called upon to stop. For this, according to article 39 of the UN Charter, the UNSC has to determine that violations have occurred and we are in a situation which constitutes an exception to the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of another country. I hope that China would abstain in the end. But what would Russia do? Is it inconceivable that they would veto? Not at all in my opinion. As stated before, they could very well covertly support tensions and conflict which entail an increase in EU dependency from their oil and gas, at premium prices. And the Arab League, a major political player in this scenario is not really up to standard. Neither is the African Union, incidentally. 

Regional conflict and instability could also become an issue. Peaceful transition and change, not to mention violent change, in countries like Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iran, could very well result in an escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict. And this time around, the scope and violence of such a conflict could very well get out of control very soon. And I hesitate on the use of the word control in this context. But again it is what I do for a living. Choices will still have to be made, and the long term results are far from obvious. 

Finally in this brief outline of my thoughts, I have to mention tensions and possible violence in the Magreb region. We " suppose" that violence is under control in Algeria and Tunisia. And the string and prompt support by the Spanish and French governments to the political reforms announced a couple of days ago by the King of Morocco, are a testimony to our concerns. The Spanish PM' s recent visit to Tunisia to express support for the transition to democracy when there was not even a government in place after the resignation of the new Tunisian leader, is further evidence of this concern. 

I believe that a repetition of the Iranian Revolutionary model is not to be excluded, if change is achieved via the empowerment of radical Islamism in those countries. And let us not forget that in Egypt, for example, after the unity shown in the overthrow of Mubarak, we are now witnesses to examples of harassment of women like on March 8th, to violence against Copt Christians, and to more regular appearances of Amin Al Ansari, the Egyptian cleric who justifies the Holocaust and violence against Jews and Christians, and whose following seems on the rise. 

So, in conclusion, are we ready over in Europe to react to a scenario of generalized hostile answers to social and political situations and problems in North Africa? I hope so, but in all honesty, I don't think so.