Syria and the Arab Spring

A recent editorial of the New York Times said that President  Bashar Al-Assad of Syria is so willing to kill his people that he could hold on to power for years. I agree. 

It also said that some elements of  the opposition now risk jeopardizing their cause and further stoking dangerous sectarian animosity if they adopt brutal and illegal tactics. A recent report by Human Rights  Watch suggests that some opposition foces are doing just that. It asserted that some units, the Free Syrian Army and other  smaller entities, have engaged in human rights abuses including kidnapping, detention and executions of security forces and pro-government militia members.

The Syrian opposition is seriously hampered by internal divisions and confusing messages. I also agree.

The sad truth is that what we so pompously called the Arab Spring is a sad case of permanent chaos. The political, demographic, cultural and tribal dynamics of countries like Egypt, Libya and Syria guarantees that the fall of the established regimes translate not into peace but in War, not in stability  but in anarchy, not in liberty but in new  and even more sinister forms of oppression.

I am in no way condoning or supporting oppressive regimes of the like of Mubarak, Ghadaffi or Assad, all I am demanding  is coherence in the press and the analysts concerning the following three points:

1.- there are no good or bad dictators. If we now demand  the demise of the Assad regime  in Syria, we should have wished the same when it came to Sadam but we did not do so for many years.

2.- if Assad goes, what we can expect in Syria is an atrocious Civil war,  a new Lebanon,  and the dismemberment  of Syria along ethnic and religious lines.

3.- It is a pathetic ingenuity and illusion  to presume that the Arab Islamic world is oriented in any form towards a liberal democracy. If we keep on insisting on this idea we are demonstrating  a complete ignorance of what is happening in reality, or worse,  a deliberate distortion of the truth with propaganda objectives.

The Butcher Assad is fighting against a " coalition" that includes Washington, European Union, but also Al Qaeda, the Saudi monarchy and Hamas among others. What does the future have in store for Syria with these common enemies?

I don't know, but I have the feeling we are in for even worse scenes than what we have seen up to now.