A recent editorial of the New York Times said that President Bashar Al-Assad of Syria is so willing to kill his people that he could hold on to power for years. I agree.
It also said that some elements of the opposition now risk jeopardizing their cause and further stoking dangerous sectarian animosity if they adopt brutal and illegal tactics. A recent report by Human Rights Watch suggests that some opposition foces are doing just that. It asserted that some units, the Free Syrian Army and other smaller entities, have engaged in human rights abuses including kidnapping, detention and executions of security forces and pro-government militia members.
The Syrian opposition is seriously hampered by internal divisions and confusing messages. I also agree.
The sad truth is that what we so pompously called the Arab Spring is a sad case of permanent chaos. The political, demographic, cultural and tribal dynamics of countries like Egypt, Libya and Syria guarantees that the fall of the established regimes translate not into peace but in War, not in stability but in anarchy, not in liberty but in new and even more sinister forms of oppression.
I am in no way condoning or supporting oppressive regimes of the like of Mubarak, Ghadaffi or Assad, all I am demanding is coherence in the press and the analysts concerning the following three points:
1.- there are no good or bad dictators. If we now demand the demise of the Assad regime in Syria, we should have wished the same when it came to Sadam but we did not do so for many years.
2.- if Assad goes, what we can expect in Syria is an atrocious Civil war, a new Lebanon, and the dismemberment of Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
3.- It is a pathetic ingenuity and illusion to presume that the Arab Islamic world is oriented in any form towards a liberal democracy. If we keep on insisting on this idea we are demonstrating a complete ignorance of what is happening in reality, or worse, a deliberate distortion of the truth with propaganda objectives.
The Butcher Assad is fighting against a " coalition" that includes Washington, European Union, but also Al Qaeda, the Saudi monarchy and Hamas among others. What does the future have in store for Syria with these common enemies?
I don't know, but I have the feeling we are in for even worse scenes than what we have seen up to now.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
North Korea and the Nuclear issue
The People's Republic of Korea has just reached an agreement with the United States:
-it will suspend its long-range missile tests
-it will suspend any uranium enrichment activities
-it will allow IAEA inspectors back into the country to monitor these promises.
In return, the United States will supply 240,000 tons of food aid. The new US representative for North Korea, Ambassador Glynn Davies, has negotiated this agreement and was, until recently, the United States Permanent Representative to the Agency in Vienna.
Another condition is that the Six Party talks should reconvene as soon as possible [USA, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea]. These conversations have been suspended since 2009. If successful, North Korea might be allowed to build small light water reactors limited to the production of electricity.
Two factors are very important to consider in this case. On April 15, North Korea will celebrate the Centennial of the birth of Kim il-Sung, the founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The regime desperately needs food supplies for the festivities, in order to make believe the population that all is well in the country.
The US presidential election in the fall is also an important factor. Washington will most certainly do its best to avert any possible source of conflict in the Far East. Pres. Obama has his plate full with Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, etc.
For someone like myself, witnessing nuclear developments from my seat in the Agency in Vienna, this comment is good news. It is hoped that the months to come will see further progress in one of the major issues in the Agency's safeguards program.
-it will suspend its long-range missile tests
-it will suspend any uranium enrichment activities
-it will allow IAEA inspectors back into the country to monitor these promises.
In return, the United States will supply 240,000 tons of food aid. The new US representative for North Korea, Ambassador Glynn Davies, has negotiated this agreement and was, until recently, the United States Permanent Representative to the Agency in Vienna.
Another condition is that the Six Party talks should reconvene as soon as possible [USA, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea]. These conversations have been suspended since 2009. If successful, North Korea might be allowed to build small light water reactors limited to the production of electricity.
Two factors are very important to consider in this case. On April 15, North Korea will celebrate the Centennial of the birth of Kim il-Sung, the founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The regime desperately needs food supplies for the festivities, in order to make believe the population that all is well in the country.
The US presidential election in the fall is also an important factor. Washington will most certainly do its best to avert any possible source of conflict in the Far East. Pres. Obama has his plate full with Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, etc.
For someone like myself, witnessing nuclear developments from my seat in the Agency in Vienna, this comment is good news. It is hoped that the months to come will see further progress in one of the major issues in the Agency's safeguards program.
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