Recently President Obama and other Western Leaders have announced the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan. In my view this implies nothing but an acknowledgment of a huge failure on our side.
There is a fact our politicians have to deal with: US and European public opinion considers the war is lost, and with upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic, they are trying to give satisfaction to as many constituents as possible. This will mean the end to 10 years of involvement, 130,000 military personnel, 48 countries, and 2,600 dead of which 1,600 Americans.
So roughly ten years after the conflict began, USA and Europe will leave behind a country still torn by corruption, armed struggle, feudalism and an ever-thriving drug business. But Bin Laden´s death is providing the excuse ( alibi?), and the apparent disarray of Al Qaeda seems to justify abandoning the theatre of operations.
The real problem is that nobody managed or even wanted to grasp the real nature of the Afghan conflict. From a military point of view, results are feeble at best. General Petraeus recently quoted a 3-5% reduction in insurgent attacks in June of this year. These attacks have nevertheless experimented a growth in boldness and efficiency, as the assassination of Ahmed Vali Karzai proves.
The West has decided to further finance the security services, to the point that the Afghans, who still have no running water or electricity for the most part, have the Army and the Police as only credible employers in the country.
Corruption is so large and extended, that billions of dollars in foreign aid have been “ lost” on the way and have ended in the pockets of the current Afghan leadership and their partners abroad. Internally, according to UNODC numbers published in Vienna, local Afghan citizens have paid out some 23% of the country’s GDP in bribes to officials.
President Karzai has no real alternative that the West can foresee, even though he only controls a small portion of the country, while the rest of the territory is in the hands of the Taliban, the Warlords (allies of the Government in theory) or is immersed in violence with no clear winner.
The country’s main source of income is foreign aid and opium, which is funny for a conflict that started with the reduction of the drug problem as one of the main objectives. In 2011, exports of opium have grown to their highest level yet.
In conclusion, another total failure for the West. We went in to help the local population achieve their “ aspirations of democracy and welfare”. But as said, the majority still doesn’t have access to electricity, education, health services or adequate housing, and women and ethnic minorities are no better off than before the invasion.
Globally there is no major improvement in regional stability, and terrorism is in no way defeated. And now we learn from sources in NATO and the US Administration that the real problem and attention is shifting to Pakistan!
In essence, we have learned nothing from the British and Soviet Empires and their own total failures in Afghanistan.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Africa´s Turn
Last week South Sudan became a new country, Africa’s youngest. A separation some of us predicted nearly two decades ago, arguing that it was in the best interest of the USA, among others, and that all efforts to try and keep Sudan as an “ Arab problem” would be futile against the will and wishes of the USA.
I personally never accepted it was a purely Arab problem and refused to defend that it should be up to the Arab League and, notably, Egypt to solve a conflict that had evolved into Africa’s longest civil war. The perpetuation of the conflict was in Egypt’s interest, keeping the Sudanese government occupied and with its mind off pursuing the issue of the waters of the Nile. The same goes for Ethiopia, a country which itself, had to let go of Eritrea a few years earlier.
Economically, the new country makes a lot of sense, because of its oil reserves if nothing else. That alone justifies for some, the decades of bloody war and independence, which should be, nevertheless, treated as a beginning and not as an end to the real issues.
This past week we have read about all the problems facing the new country. The list includes all the issues normally attributed to Africa as a whole: poverty; Human development indicators (education, health, nutrition); a country the size of France but with only 40 kms of paved roads; unclear borders; scars of war, and many others.
So, once again, in Africa, a somewhat positive event, the birth of a new Nation, invites to pessimism. But I resist accepting that pessimism is called for in Africa. I still believe that we are talking about the continent of the future.
UN statistics reports give us some interesting reads. Amongst the ten countries in the World with higher GNP growth in the first decade of the 21st Century, six were African nations: Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mozambique and Rwanda. Of course, the realities for some of those countries, the high price of Oil for Angola and Nigeria, and for the rest, the mere fact that they started the Century from the lowest indicators in the World, has to be taken into account.
But it also means, in my view that all-out pessimism about Africa’s future is now uncalled for. The continent is now on the radar of international investors and the rush for its natural resources by the emerging nations, Brazil, India and China, has been a reality for years past. It is true that these positive economic factors carry a heavy toll on local populations, changing their environment for future generations, and handing over to foreigners their resources, including farming lands, but it also has meant steady economic growth, giving Africa a new position in the International Economic Global arena.
According to the Economist, 7 of the 10 countries with higher growth rates in the next decade will be in Africa, closely following in the wake of India and China. Two main hypotheses are mentioned. In the first, Africa will take the Indian “ model” with a green revolution, which will follow a modernization of agricultural production and finally allow Africa to feed its population. As in India, this economic growth will coexist with tremendous poverty for a substantial percentage of the population. The second scenario sees Africa growing steadily following the Latin American model of the last few years, with more integration in global markets, better governance of national economies and better distribution of wealth, but also with the perpetuation of social inequalities. So poverty and its eradication are still in center stage in Africa.
South Sudan is, thus, born into a continent that will count more and more in the global context. Africa will surpass India in population in the next 12 years, and end up very close to Chinese numbers. Global issues like climate change and food security will be, for the most part, battled out in Africa, and its role in the World economy will increase significantly. Watching the new nation and its people celebrate independence proves once again that the African dream of managing their own future and resources is still there.
For me, the only sour part of this story was the presence of Robert Mugabe, the liberator turned dictator, who has destroyed his country in the years after independence. But that is a whole new story.
I personally never accepted it was a purely Arab problem and refused to defend that it should be up to the Arab League and, notably, Egypt to solve a conflict that had evolved into Africa’s longest civil war. The perpetuation of the conflict was in Egypt’s interest, keeping the Sudanese government occupied and with its mind off pursuing the issue of the waters of the Nile. The same goes for Ethiopia, a country which itself, had to let go of Eritrea a few years earlier.
Economically, the new country makes a lot of sense, because of its oil reserves if nothing else. That alone justifies for some, the decades of bloody war and independence, which should be, nevertheless, treated as a beginning and not as an end to the real issues.
This past week we have read about all the problems facing the new country. The list includes all the issues normally attributed to Africa as a whole: poverty; Human development indicators (education, health, nutrition); a country the size of France but with only 40 kms of paved roads; unclear borders; scars of war, and many others.
So, once again, in Africa, a somewhat positive event, the birth of a new Nation, invites to pessimism. But I resist accepting that pessimism is called for in Africa. I still believe that we are talking about the continent of the future.
UN statistics reports give us some interesting reads. Amongst the ten countries in the World with higher GNP growth in the first decade of the 21st Century, six were African nations: Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mozambique and Rwanda. Of course, the realities for some of those countries, the high price of Oil for Angola and Nigeria, and for the rest, the mere fact that they started the Century from the lowest indicators in the World, has to be taken into account.
But it also means, in my view that all-out pessimism about Africa’s future is now uncalled for. The continent is now on the radar of international investors and the rush for its natural resources by the emerging nations, Brazil, India and China, has been a reality for years past. It is true that these positive economic factors carry a heavy toll on local populations, changing their environment for future generations, and handing over to foreigners their resources, including farming lands, but it also has meant steady economic growth, giving Africa a new position in the International Economic Global arena.
According to the Economist, 7 of the 10 countries with higher growth rates in the next decade will be in Africa, closely following in the wake of India and China. Two main hypotheses are mentioned. In the first, Africa will take the Indian “ model” with a green revolution, which will follow a modernization of agricultural production and finally allow Africa to feed its population. As in India, this economic growth will coexist with tremendous poverty for a substantial percentage of the population. The second scenario sees Africa growing steadily following the Latin American model of the last few years, with more integration in global markets, better governance of national economies and better distribution of wealth, but also with the perpetuation of social inequalities. So poverty and its eradication are still in center stage in Africa.
South Sudan is, thus, born into a continent that will count more and more in the global context. Africa will surpass India in population in the next 12 years, and end up very close to Chinese numbers. Global issues like climate change and food security will be, for the most part, battled out in Africa, and its role in the World economy will increase significantly. Watching the new nation and its people celebrate independence proves once again that the African dream of managing their own future and resources is still there.
For me, the only sour part of this story was the presence of Robert Mugabe, the liberator turned dictator, who has destroyed his country in the years after independence. But that is a whole new story.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
Posts
