Saturday, January 29, 2011

Davos, useful?

The Davos Forum is on again in this beautiful town in Switzerland. Interesting speakers and subjects are intensely debated. Really?

Take this year: a debate on Latin America in which no mention is made of drug trafficking and the 30.000 deaths it has caused in what is in reality a civil war in Mexico our nearest neighbor; a debate on the Middle East in which the fact that the talks have been interrupted once again is not mentioned once; the revolution in Tunisia and in other Arab States is barely an issue in debates on politics; and Assange and Wikileaks are absent in all the debates about the future of international relations.

Efforts have been made to bring these and other issues to the front of the debates, but with little success so far. Up to now, Davos has survived and thrived because of the quality of the discussions and debates, but this year is, so far, quite disappointing, at least to me.

Revolution in the Arab World

Four days ago I was invited to take part in a panel on the Middle East at Flagler College in St. Augustine, FL. I sat together with Senator McGovern and Writer Ron Estes to discuss this issue before an audience of some 200 people in the Student Center.

For someone of my generation, sitting beside George McGovern whom I still remember very well from when he ran against Nixon in 1972, made one of the days which I will always remember.

I had the opportunity during this debate to mention that the real threat to US security and interests in the region is the possibility of revolution. We then knew what had happened in Tunisia. As I write these words, we are following developments in Egypt, where President Mubarak has forced the government to resign but has not, as yet, been made to leave power by his own people.

The Administration seems to have realized how delicate it's position is in the area, and has changed its attitude and speech in the last hours. About time too! Mubarak is a strong US ally, sort of. Egypt has been and is a nuisance in many ways. And I don't totally share the argument that any such regime is better than whatever can come out of the unrest.

But certainly the US has to make up for the lost years and get a bonding message across to civil society and moderate opposition in the country. Many Egyptians cannot understand why we always stand behind dictators and repressive regimes for decades, and do not also promote relations with alternative leaders, thus leaving the way open for radicals to challenge the establishment and take power eventually.

The next few hours will be crutial to Mubarak's regime. I, for one, will be neither surprised nor unhappy to see him leave.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

China in Africa

Since the early 80s, but particularly in the last decade, China has been actively pursuing a policy of ensuring a healthy supply of raw materials and goods from Africa. According to the IMF, commercial relations between China and Africa have been growing at a rate of 30% and have gone well over 100 billion US dollars in 2010.

At the same time, over half a million Chinese nationals have emigrated to Africa to work and achieve better living conditions than they had back home.

In Africa we often see Westerners complain of everything: corruption in business and government, bureaucracy, disease and mosquitoes. Chinese just work and get on with it. They have built heavy infrastructure, revolutionized entire sectors, ie. Personal transportation with their cheap mopeds and other vehicles; and have set up hotel businesses. All without complaining.

Africans themselves prefer Chinese humility to Western paternalism. It is true that Chinese emigrants do not mix with the locals and do not speak their language. But, for the most part, they share the same living conditions and do not pretend to be superior in any way.

Governments also welcome Chinese attitudes, particularly their silence on issues of governance and human rights. They do not feel threatened with the Chinese presence and which ensures a degree of economic growth ( an average of 4% annually after China has become a major partner) even if it has not meant any significant change in the conditions of the majority of the African population.

China knows Africa is the future. It has become a principal player in African politics. When Europe and the West have accepted this fact, it was already too late to react. Now little else than adapting to the new ways of making business in Africa is left for us.