Is no news good news?

Zimbabwe´s new government has been in office now for slightly over a week. We hear relatively little of what is going on in the country. Is that good news?

I don´t think so. I still believe that the MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai have been tricked and pressured into a lose-lose situation. Mugabe and his cronies, have kept all the key ministries, where real power resides.

Morgan and his followers, winners outright in the last elections, one might add, have the " social" ministries. That is, Mugabe has destroyed the country, and now Morgan is called upon to rebuild it, under the watchful eye of Mugabe himself!

The only real recourse Morgan has is to turn to the West and ask for help. Will we come to his rescue? Humanitarian aid is needed and will be, no doubt provided, but I think that none of us will accept that a man-made disaster goes without accountability, even retribution in some cases.

I have done it again! Write about Zimbabwe. It is on my mind far too much. Poor people....

And Hugo Chavez got his way!

Hugo Chavez finally managed to impose his will on the people of Venezuela. He tried once in December 2007 and was beaten. It actually took a firm stand by the Military to get him to acknowledge he had lost the referendum. 

So what he did was start to prepare the next one. This time round he got his way. He will be able to stand for re-election for as long as he wishes. And he will win. I was in Venezuela when he won the first election in 1998. Ever since he has followed the same route as most demo-dictators. He has called for a ballot every odd year he has been in power. For one reason or another. He is permanently in campaign.

He makes believe he is a democrat. My foot! He uses and abuses all the powers and monies of Venezuela in his personal favour. He has “invested” in the people of Venezuela more than the total debt of Latin America and Africa added together. Has the situation of his people changed? Not really. It is true than some people now have access to health treatment and education, if the system he has implemented can be called education and health care.

But the majority of Venezuelans are nevertheless happy. He provides beer ( Polarcita), entertainment in the form of baseball, and doesn’t expect them to work for a living. What more could the people hope for? It is usually an accepted fact that countries have the leaders they deserve. 

I will go one step further. I think countries, if given the choice, usually elect leaders who are exactly like themselves! Hugo Chavez is not a democrat, he is not a serious leader, he is not even funny or amusing: exactly like the majority of Venezuelans!

Expectations

So, yes, Obama has made the first of what I guess will be many efforts to tackle the situation, and he has failed to live up to my expectations. I thought so! and I said so! His Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner came out and said... nothing. And the markets lost nearly 5%.

This poses further questions. Do we know the quantity of toxic assets? Have we been told the truth up to now?

I must say I am extremely disappointed. I have written before that we need Obama and strong leaders as much as the US does, over here in Europe. And this is his first go at the problems that still await us ahead this year and the next.

The press coverage has been tremendous. Most believe that the plan was not well thought out. It is probably better if this is true. The other side of course, is the possibility that nobody wants the influx of money the Administration is wanting to pump in the system.

This has happened in some European countries also. In Spain, banks have been very reluctant to accept the money injected via auctions by the Government.

Governments are complaining that banks are failing to meet demand for credit. Banks, on the other hand, have started saying out loud that they would be irresponsible if they lend to those demanding credit now, and that solvent businesses and individuals are not among those demanding credit in these times.

Moving jobs!

I have just noticed that my last three posts were dedicated to Zimbabwe. I must confess this country has been a great part of my live. I have enjoyed myself there. But I now must start looking forward.

I had an interesting job before me for the next few months. I have been a victim of a preemptive strike by a bunch of bureaucrats whose life depends on titles and what it says on their business cards. I have not had the necessary support from my superiors and have resigned.

I am now awaiting a decision on my future. I hope to go back to my basics and work on European Union affairs.

BTW I travelled to Switzerland this weekend. They are supposed to be in Schengen, you know the no borders in Europe agreement. But THEY, as usual, have to be different. So they still have passport control at their airports. They want to be different and the rest of us allow it. Why?

Gideon does it again!

Only yesterday I commented on Zimbabwe´s hyperinflation, and the measures Gideon Gono, the Governor of the Reserve Bank took while I was there, to try to cope. Today I wake up to the news that he has slashed a further 12 zeroes off the currency. Added to the 10 five months ago, and 3 zeroes before that, it amounts to a total of 25! ( follow the link on the title for news coverage).

The real problem in that country is whether the political agreement works. Why would Mugabe have changed his mind? It is now nearly one year since Morgan Tsvangitai won the elections outright. There is absolutely no doubt about that. Nobody was expecting it and " independent" pollers couldn´t believe it, so they hinted that maybe, he had not reached 50% of the votes cast. Mugabe and ZANU-PF took 3 weeks to react, but when they did, they rushed through this small opening and have been riding high ever since. 

I would ask Morgan not to enter the government. Time is on his side. I don´t agree with those who think that he should accept because the people are suffering too much. Mugabe is to blame for the suffering, not Tsvangirai. 

I would ask Morgan not to trust Mugabe. He has proven he is unworthy of the respect the world placed on him and his government in 1980. Let him fade away, Morgan, so that your country may rise again.

From Hyperinflation to Deflation

I have just lived in a hyper-inflationary situation for a few years. A a matter of fact, Zimbabwe has probably been the country with the highest rate of inflation in History. The actual rate is unimportant, when a loaf of bread costs 30 trillion dollars, the problem for the ordinary citizen lies elsewhere. 

When one thinks that it was less than six months ago that the Reserve Bank cut 10, that´s right, ten zeroes off the currency and for a few brief days, the dollar US hovered around 4,500, then things start getting funny. 

Again, not even 2 years ago, the Reserve Bank cut another 3 zeroes off the currency of the time. That is a total of 13 zeroes off, and still a loaf of bread is 30 trillion Zimbabwean dollars.

But the real problem is that the salary of a Teacher, or a Nurse, is also 30 trillion. That is to say their monthly salary doesn´t cover a single loaf of bread. The ZANU-PF solution: you simply make bread unavailable. You can´t find bread in Zimbabwe today.

After that experience, I come back home to Europe and find myself in a deflationary situation. All in a matter of hours! Prices of nearly all goods and services are falling quite sharply, and people are still not buying. Most European governments´ solution: spend their way out of recession and deflation. Wrong choice again! 

As one of my favorite blog writers reminded us all yesterday, Margaret Thatcher once said:  “The problem with Socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”

Today I have to think that something is really very wrong with this world we live in.